The Source blog notes today that the Metro Board has asked staff for a report on whether it would be best to go back to voters (to ask either to extend the Measure R sales tax or to approve a new tax) in 2014 or 2016. Move LA has been pondering the 2014 vs. 2016 question as well, and has looked into the average turnout for a Gubernatorial General Election (the next governor's race is in 2014) versus a Presidential General Election (in 2016) and here is what we found:

  • the average turnout in LA County for a Gubernatorial General Election is 51.14%

  • the average turnout in LA County for a Presidential General Election is 74.70%

This would suggest 2016 provides us with a better chance to win more money for transit, especially if there is a candidate like Hilary Clinton who will excite her base. But ALSO:

  • The economy will likely be improved in 2016, especially when compared to November 2008 (when Measure R was passed).

  • There will be the sense that Measure R promises will have been made and kept -- both Expo and the Foothill Gold Line will be operating, and the Crenshaw Line, Regional Connector and the Westside Subway will be under construction.

  • The Latino and Asian share of the electorate (more inclined to support transit) will have grown.

  • And the State of California will have instituted an Election Day Voter Registration program.

So Move LA votes for 2016!


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